Where storms do form, this could support a few semi-high-based supercells aside from multicellular clusters. While initially weak, mid-level winds should strengthen by early/mid-evening and contribute to upwards of 30-40 kt effective shear. However, at least isolated deep convective development is plausible late this afternoon and especially early evening, particularly across central Minnesota in vicinity of a surface triple point. Given the modest moisture and the degree of capping, it remains a bit uncertain about the likelihood/coverage of storms across parts of the current categorical Slight Risk. Regional 12Z soundings sampled this limited moisture, with a relative regional maximum noted with the 12Z Topeka sounding sampling around a 9 g/kg mean-mixing ratio and a 9C dewpoint just below 850 mb. A stout elevated mixed layer will exist atop modest early springtime moisture, with surface dewpoints within the warm sector to generally be no higher than the lower 50s around peak heating/mixing. A cold front will spread southeastward across the region and roughly bisect Minnesota in a northeast/southwest orientation by around early evening (00Z). "Weak height falls will occur across the region late today owing to the influence of an eastward-moving shortwave trough crossing the Canadian prairies. SLIGHT Severe Threat (2 out of 5) PM MondayĪccording to NOAA's Strom Prediction Center, there is a SLIGHT RISK of severe storms (2 out of 5 on the severe scale) PM Monday.
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